Policy Making for Global Transportation Planning using the Delphi-Scenario Writing with a New Concept of 'Future Vision'

The personal trip survey plays a vital role in global, multi-modal transportation planning. The four-step method for estimating travel demand based on data from the personal trip survey has been systematized during the course of long-term studies and practical applications. This method therefore has been widely used in various aspects of transportation planning. However, it is usually concerned with travel demand and very useful in periods of economic expansion. Now that emphasis is being placed on quality because the economy has taken a downturn, the conventional method should be reconsidered in terms of a qualitative, political approach. The present study deals with a new methodology for establishing a qualitative, long-term view of regional requirements. In other words, the purpose of this study is to create a socio-economic vision of the future for proper transportation planning for a target region. This study calls it 'future vision', which consists of several future images when considering the changing characteristics of the region and relationship with surrounding areas. These future images can cover all transportation-related topics, from global problems to local issues. Each future image is composed of scenarios that reflect the future direction and role of transportation planning, which fully describes infrastructures as well as management. Transportation planning experts employed brainstorming to create an initial version of the future vision. The brainstorming brought many important keywords related to the future images. The planners assembled keywords and added sentences to set up scenarios. This version was revised by using the Delphi questionnaire method in order to eliminate obvious errors and improper perspectives, while incorporating missing information. The Delphi method was conducted on researchers, engineers, planners, and administrators that are well versed in transportation planning. A procedure was also developed to update almost automatically according to the results of the questionnaire. The revised version of the future vision was again checked and revised similarly by the Delphi method and the updating procedure. Actually, the future vision was refined twice, which led to the final version of the future vision having a high degree of accuracy and feasibility. The future vision is qualitative and policy-oriented, while the conventional four-step method is quantitative and demand-oriented. Two different approaches should work together for the comprehensive transportation planning. This study finally introduced a hybrid method between the two approaches by discussing a way of linking the future vision with the conventional personal trip survey system. The proposed linkage produced (1) hearing recommendations of various people in many positions, (2) enhancement of the transportation planning by sharing and solving anticipated problems, and (3) incorporation of more policy-oriented planning elements.

Analysis of residential choice behavior at community scale

The complex problems shared by many cities throughout Japan are evidence of the impacts of land use plans that have been poorly designed and managed. Most of the existing plans in Japan have focused on the metropolitan areas but nowadays the physical layout or land use of communities is fundamental to sustainability. Community sustainability requires a transition from poorly-managed large-scale plans to land use planning practices at the community scale that maintain efficient infrastructures, and ensure close-knit neighborhoods and a sense of community. This paper provides a scheme for discussing the residential choice of people at the community scale in a local city in Japan in order to help local communities or local authorities concerned with suitable land use planning. First, this paper gives the key principles of residential choice behavior through the statistical analysis of the revealed preference of people who actually made the decision to choose the location of their new residence. Some interesting results are a bigger correlation than expected between the location of residence and the place of work, and a strong attachment of movers to their old communities. The latter half of this paper describes a modeling process for specifying the residential choice at the community scale. The discrete choice model adopted in the present study is a conventional disaggregate logit model that is capable of representing complicated individual choice behavior while they are changing their place of residence.

Spatial structure and prediction of Land use change considering development projects in urban promotion districts

n this paper, the actual conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data are studied in urban promotion area in a local hub city of Fukuoka, Japan. Firstly, all meshes are classified into 15 patterns based on distribution of land use. Then, transition probability models are made out based on the change of these 15 patterns. The Change structure of land use in an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and different transition probability models are proposed. Finally, a prediction method of land use is proposed under the consideration of the changing structure of meshes. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful to evaluate the effects of urban policies for development projects.

Evaluation of City Planning Road Development Measures by Microscopic Traffic Simulation

This study was made on the development plan of Kawahara Avenue, a road project authorized in city planning of Miyazaki City in Japan. The Kawahara Avenue development is planned along the Oyodo River. The land use of the area along the route comprises the tourist hotel zone, residential zone, and industrial zone. The Kawahara Avenue planning, unlike most other road development plans in Japan, requires much more than simply providing for the smooth flow of traffic. In the tourist hotel zone where the leading Miyazaki City hotels are located, the image and impression the tourists may have about the city is an important consideration. Therefore, the city government intends that this section of the road should not have excessive traffic. In the residential zone, the existing road network consists of narrow streets with no sidewalks. In addition to the sidewalks to be built, Kawahara Avenue is expected to handle a great deal of the traffic passing the residential district. This should help meet the goal in providing a safe environment for the pedestrians in other narrow streets without sidewalks. Under the circumstances as stated above, the planning has faced significant constraints in land purchasing involving forced move-out in the result of financial problems and coordination of the views between the city administration and the residents in the vicinity. The purpose of this research is to study under the given constraints what would be the most appropriate plan for the development of Kawahara Avenue. First, a traffic monitoring survey was conducted in the subject districts to compile Origin-Destination (OD) data of traffic flow in the districts. Then, the road network of the subject districts and traffic signal phase data were digitized to carry out microscopic traffic simulation and checked for reproduction accuracy of the current situation. The results confirmed that simulation reproduces the traffic conditions of the districts with sufficient precision. Furthermore, we prepared several hypothetical proposals for the road development and evaluated with the same simulation system as to how the traffic situations would be had those proposals been implemented. As a result it was demonstrated that the original goals can be achieved by developing the road within the given constraints.

Analysis of Residential Choice Behavior at Community Scale

The complex problems shared by many cities throughout Japan are evidence of the impacts of land use plans that have been poorly designed and managed. Most of the existing plans in Japan have focused on the metropolitan areas but nowadays the physical layout or land use of communities is fundamental to sustainability. Community sustainability requires a transition from poorly-managed large-scale plans to land use planning practices at the community scale that maintain efficient infrastructures, and ensure close-knit neighborhoods and a sense of community. This paper provides a scheme for discussing the residential choice of people at the community scale in a local city in Japan in order to help local communities or local authorities concerned with suitable land use planning. First, this paper gives the key principles of residential choice behavior through the statistical analysis of the revealed preference of people who actually made the decision to choose the location of their new residence. Some interesting results are a bigger correlation than expected between the location of residence and the place of work, and a strong attachment of movers to their old communities. The latter half of this paper describes a modeling process for specifying the residential choice at the community scale. The discrete choice model adopted in the present study is a conventional disaggregate logit model that is capable of representing complicated individual choice behavior while they are changing their place of residence.44 th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal, 25-29 August 200

Analysis of Residential Choice Behavior at Community Scale

44 th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal, 25-29 August 2004The complex problems shared by many cities throughout Japan are evidence of the impacts of land use plans that have been poorly designed and managed. Most of the existing plans in Japan have focused on the metropolitan areas but nowadays the physical layout or land use of communities is fundamental to sustainability. Community sustainability requires a transition from poorly-managed large-scale plans to land use planning practices at the community scale that maintain efficient infrastructures, and ensure close-knit neighborhoods and a sense of community. This paper provides a scheme for discussing the residential choice of people at the community scale in a local city in Japan in order to help local communities or local authorities concerned with suitable land use planning. First, this paper gives the key principles of residential choice behavior through the statistical analysis of the revealed preference of people who actually made the decision to choose the location of their new residence. Some interesting results are a bigger correlation than expected between the location of residence and the place of work, and a strong attachment of movers to their old communities. The latter half of this paper describes a modeling process for specifying the residential choice at the community scale. The discrete choice model adopted in the present study is a conventional disaggregate logit model that is capable of representing complicated individual choice behavior while they are changing their place of residence

Spatial Structure and Prediction of Land Use Change Considering Development Projects in Urban Promotion Districts

In this paper, the actual conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data are studied in urban promotion area in a local hub city of Fukuoka, Japan. Firstly, all meshes are classified into 15 patterns based on distribution of land use. Then, transition probability models are made out based on the change of these 15 patterns. The Change structure of land use in an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and different transition probability models are proposed. Finally, a prediction method of land use is proposed under the consideration of the changing structure of meshes. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful to evaluate the effects of urban policies for development projects.44 th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal, 25-29 August 200

Clinical Features of Intestinal Behçet's Disease Associated with Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Trisomy 8

Several studies have identified a relationship between myelodysplastic syndrome and Behçetʼs disease (BD), especially intestinal BD, and trisomy 8 appears to play an important role in these disorders. Despite this, only few case reports or series have been reported in gastroenterology, meaning that endoscopic findings and characteristics of intestinal BD have not been clarified yet. In this report, we describe three cases of intestinal BD associated with myelodysplastic syndrome and trisomy 8, and discuss the clinical features and problems of these disorders from a gastroenterology perspective

Predicting the outcome of distraction osteogenesis by 3-phase bone scintigraphy

3相骨シンチグラフィによる骨延長術の結果予測取得学位 : 博士（医学）, 学位授与番号 : 医博甲第1580号, 学位授与年月日 : 平成15年3月25日, 学位授与大学 : 金沢大

Reality of Gastric Cancer in Young Patients: The Importance and Difficulty of the Early Diagnosis, Prevention and Treatment

Gastric cancer usually arises in middle-aged to older patients, and is rarely found in younger patients. The clin-ical characteristics, etiology, prognosis, preventive methods and treatment of gastric cancer in young patients have not been fully investigated because of its low prevalence. In this review, we discuss the current under-standing and clinical problems associated with gastric cancer in young patients. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), which is a major cause of gastric cancer, especially in older populations, is closely associated with gastric cancer in young patients as well as in older patients. Gastric cancer in young patients tends to be diagnosed at an advanced stage with alarm symptoms. However, young patients with advanced gastric cancer tend to have a favorable general condition and organ function, so they can tolerate intensive systematic chemotherapy. Unfortunately, the prognosis of gastric cancer in young patients with an advanced stage is not favorable. We should not take this rare disease lightly, given its poor prognosis if patients are diagnosed at an unresectable stage. The evaluation of the H. pylori infection status and performance of H. pylori eradication therapy to prevent gastric cancer in young patients as well as the development of more intensive chemotherapy regimens for unre-sectable gastric cancer in young patients are warranted